![]() ![]() ![]() Section 5: OPA Board Subject: Swim/Racquet Marina Msg# 155367
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With respect to the proposed new marina, does any official of OPA, Inc. or the board have a detailed projection of the year by year total incremental life-cycle cash flows for this project and the associated underlying assumptions made for each cash flow line item in the projection? For that matter, does any official of OPA, Inc. or the board have a detailed projection of the year by year total incremental life-cycle cash flows for each alternative in the comprehensive plan with the associated underlying assumptions made for each cash flow line item in these projections? If yes, has anyone in OPA, Inc. (1) performed a due diligence review of these projections for reasonableness? and (2) performed any other cash flow analysis besides nominal payback? (I agree with CALIBAN that nominal payback analysis has dramatic flaws as a decision making tool even if all incremental cash flows are included since it ignores the time value of money). As OPA Inc. seems ready to embark on some serious capital spending over the next few years, does OPA have documented capital management procedures and policies approved and in place? Based on my limited exposure to OPA, Inc. financial accounting practices, I have never once seen or heard discussed by the staff or the board any budget versus actual comparisons for current capital projects. If I were a betting person, I would bet that OPA Inc. utilizes little, if any, modern capital management analytical tools (especially if they are relying on nominal payback analysis for justification of the marina expenses). Incidentally, most modern capital management analytical tools are readily available on Microsoft's Excel spreadsheet program. That's the easy part. The hard part of the analysis is gathering reasonable estimates of all the incremental, life cycle cash flows of the asset. One of my preferred methods to analyze a capital project is to calculate the Discounted Benefit/Cost Ratio [divide its discounted, life-cycle cash inflows (benefits) by its discounted, life-cycle cash outflows (costs)]. If the ratio is one or more, the project has neutral or positive life time cash in flows and should proceed. If choosing among several alternatives for the same project, the alternative with the largest positive ratio is preferred. It is prudent to run any analysis using three different scenarios - worst case cash flows, best case cash flows, and most probable cash flows. If a positive ratio is not reached in the worst case or most probable scenarios, then sensitivity analysis (varying the variables) is needed to isolate the critical variables so that studies can be performed to mitigate these before proceeding with the project. |
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For reference, the above message is a reply to a message where: Marty, thanks for permission to post your letter below: November 23, 2004 Dear Tom: With all due respect to you, the board of directors, and Mr. Ferguson, the presentation for the proposed new marina at the Swim and Racquet Club was as "credible and conservative" as Joe Gibbs still planning on the Redskins going to the Super Bowl. For the record I am opposed to this undertaking, however it is important to disclose that I have no dog in the fight. I do own boats, one of which is currently docked in the Pines Point Marina, and I have leased a marina slip from the Association in the past, both at the Yacht Club and the Swim and Racquet Club. I do not use the community swimming pools. That said, I have major problems with the proposed new slips. The propaganda handout at the last board of directors meeting "COST RECOVERY OPTIONS" is not founded in facts. The cost to construct Option 3B is at least 25% low even if no additional parking is required. At the same time they use gross rental revenues with no consideration of lost interest on the capital, insurance, water, electric, maintenance, reserves, or management which could be as much as half of the gross revenue. According to the O/P/A budget the existing marina slips lose money. The 7.7 year recovery number is ludicrous. A more realistic number would be 22 years. Tom, what is the reason behind this bizarre behavior by our board of directors? To my knowledge there have been only two credible demographic studies which addressed amenities in the past fifteen years; one by Gallup and the other by the Ocean Pines Association in conjunction with Salisbury State University. Both of these comprehensive studies determined, based on the input of the membership, that the number one most important new amenity for Ocean Pines is an indoor swimming pool. Even when SSU cross referenced the boat owners they also preferred an indoor pool over increased boat slips. In 1998 the board of directors received "The Comprehensive Plan". That document, Table-6-12 "Level of Community Support for Selected Recreational Program Improvements", mirrored the previous studies and again chose an indoor pool as number one. Increased boat slips did not make the top ten! The facts are clear. The membership wants an indoor swimming pool, not new boat slips for 56 individuals. Have a Happy Thanksgiving. Marty Clarke |
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